Can we shift to a lower energy, more energy efficient economy? Will we simply move from flying to taking high speed rail and electric cars? What will society look like and what will happen to the global economy?

Economist and author of “Why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller: Oil and the end of globalization” Jeff Rubin predicts flying will be as it was in the early 1970s.

I am putting aside flaws in the assumption that we have to grow the economy to keep financing  the global economy. A big ask maybe, but in reality that’s where politics and economics is and will be for a while I feel despite the efforts of many at a saner approach.

The Green New Deal in the UK, the USA and many other nations is heralded as the way to simultaneously make all the necessary substitutions, boosting economic activity, providing jobs and a green version of the life we all know. Nothing too scary about that.

But is it true? Can we subsitute are way out of the energy hole we are falling into. This is for me the big unanswered question at the heart of current economic and political thinking. I have enjoyed recent talks by economist and author Jeff Rubin asking these questions and suggesting some of the answers. Relocalisation is central to his thesis. . .

Here is a fuller exploration on this theme, including his prediction that flying will go back to the level seen in the 1970s. Rubin argues that without enforced trade tariffs for high emitting goods and services there is little chance of the developing world moving to a low emissions development model. He argues that the sooner these tariffs are in place the better. China and other economies will soon be far less dependent on consumption in the West for there own economic growth, as their domestic and regional demand are growing fast. A strong argument for rapid transfer to low and zero emissions regional economies, even if there is short term pain for old industries and our dependence on imports.

Rubin references the EU as a demonstration of the future for the US in terms of transport. But, if we are to have a significant chance of avoiding runaway climate change, this will not be nearly enough.

In conclusion Rubins predicts by 2010 oil over $200 pb. Economic growth is central still but based on re-regionalised economies. Peak oil means that peak globalisation happened in 2007. The world is about to get localised!

My dad is a wonderful and optimistic man, he believes in the ingenuity of man to technofix our greatest challenges such as climate change and energy scarcity. He often sends me articles like this in the Vacouver Sun.

A $1.3-billion technological upgrade to Canada’s air-traffic-control system is taking off in another way: It will bring cleaner skies.

I think he’s trying to cheer me up! I know he thinks I worry too much. So in the spirit of optimism I checked out the article talking about the thousands of tonnes CO2 that would be saved by the latest satellite GPS technology allowing more planes to cross Canada etc. whilst also saving on fuel costs and emissions. . .

My response to my dad:

interesting article. . . . . I would say, it’s only better to be more efficient IF it comes with lowering overall TOTAL emissions.

So far all the efficiencey savings (engine technology, wing design, traffic control, improved lighter materials etc.) in the aviation industry has, in reality, led to two things happening:

1. Delayed meaningful policy responses to control of the TOTAL emissions by this sector, the fastest growing sector in the world. Imagine the impact of the Chinese, Indians, Malaysians flying as much as Europeans Australians etc. Why would they restrict themselves if we refuse to?

2. Through a well studied economic feedback called ‘Khazzoom-Brookes postulate’, the extra profits captured by the aviation industry through efficiency gains allow it to expand it’s business. The result is that TOTAL emissions end up HIGHER.

The 2% figure used here for emissions is very out of date. They are more like 4-9% of the total CO2e warming. Currently estimates are for another doubling in emissions by 2030 (by 2007 they were double the 1990 level) this includes such efficiency savings as detailed in the article. Globally the per capita level of emissions for all human activities needs be 1 or 2 tonnes (that’s 1 return flight to Delhi or Vancouver).

So while I accept  that technological advancement can be part of a solution it can also make the problem worse in TOTAL. If we look at what scientists are saying actual reductions in the TOTAL emissions must begin straight away. . .

Professor Schellnhuber recently briefed U.S. officials from the Barack Obama administration, He had told them that the U.S. must reduce its emissions from its current 20 tonnes of carbon per person average to zero tonnes per person by 2020 to have an even chance of stabilising the climate around two degrees C.  . . . China’s emissions must peak by 2020 and then go to zero by 2035 based on the current science.

In the EU the typical emissions are around 11 tonnes per head right now.

The emissions from aviation industry must be subject to a stringent cap on total emissions, nothing less. Even though that means the aviation industry’s future is likely one of contraction.

I am starting to suspect Essentials co-op has been inflitrated, their food contaminated with some form of Monsanto derived super virus, a virus that splices in an emissions denial gene into otherwise highly aware human beings. I know it sounds crazy, but a good friend and tireless campaigner for social justice, Transition Towns and much more, pointed me to this Guardian article referring to research published by Dr Tim Riley at Loughborough University. He concluded :

“While some people are willing to fly less and others are willing to pay more to fly to offset emissions, they remain the minority. It is cost and not environmental consequences that deter people from flying more often.”

She is just off to India by the way . . .  I assume by bike and camel etc.

In my experience some of the most entrenched flyers are people who’s identity is otherwise largely based on doing the right thing. I can’t quite get my head round this one. . . . maybe it’s something subliminal on the Yoga relaxation CD (I’ll try playing one at double speed to see if I can hear the ads for Easyjet deals to Bombay)

FHS is an increasingly serious condition that is spreading faster than ever and if my Bohemian friends are anything to go by these otherwise low impact living heroes are suffering more than the rest of the population.

I was with another friend from London the other day who has decided the best response to our current destruction of planet earth etc. is to spread the idea of ‘blended living’ - one hand on the spade and one on the laptop. They then added that the winter months would be spent somewhere like India, getting spiritually re-charged (not sure if that was working with the poor to rebuild sustainable rural economy, or staying at a Sawdayesque retreat) and the 2 tonnes CO2 from the 1 trip (not including any uplift here) was offset by lower impact living at home.

I think this phenomenon should have a name, as it is so prevalent amongst my peers, I might call it flying hippy syndrome!

4 degrees here we come  . . . .

OK I am not really an advocate of lecturing so I am wondering if I forget about pointing all this stuff out and stop giving my friends a hard time. . . so I thought this might be better approach

ARE YOU DOING YOUR BIT FOR CLIMATE CHANGE, PEAK OIL? - GIVE ME A BREAK!

You say, “don’t even start, I am not going to live in a commune and eat lentils!”

I say “I am not asking you to make personal sacrifices.”

You say, “I fly and I drive and I like eating meat. It’s not a crime!”

Yes, and that’s totally normal, and making a martyr of yourself is not the point. I am not asking you to suddenly stop when every one else carries on.

What am I saying?

We act together and make the best out of what is a massive challenge for everyone. If it’s just you doing it, then there is little point.

It’s about deciding what type of future we want, given what we know about climate change, and energy security and it’s also about fairness. Only acting together can we create the fair system of rules and regulations where we share the benefits and responsibilities of the changes that are needed.

So in no uncertain terms, tell your MP, “I will if you will” , talk to your boss, your friends, your family. Together we’ll make happen whatever needs to happen to get us through in the best possible way.

If everyone acts together we can have a good life, better in many ways than we have now, and much better than the life we’ll have if we don’t.

Are we going to tell ourselves that it is our right to live however we want? Is it too hard to change? Or, are we going to accept that many of the things we now consider normal, like flying on holiday, business trips or even visiting family whenever we want, are destroying our future as a species and destroying what’s not ours to destroy. We don’t know how big an impact were making for our own future and that of our children. future.

The UNEP scientists tell us that in failing to address the atmosphere, land, water and biodiversity problems “we may threaten humanity’s survival”. Our way of thinking about how to solve these problems seems to stem from a desire to control everything, especially nature. Is this because deep down we are afraid of nature, so prefer to think of it as needing us to protect it? Rare animals for example need us to ’save’ them by keeping them in a zoo, the most controlled of environments. But the truth is, we need nature and depend on her - no-one is going to save us by putting us in a zoo!

We need to wake up to the reality! More than 30% of the worlds amphibians, 23% of fish stocks and 12% of birds are now threatened with extinction. If these animals are struggling to survive now, how long before earth becomes a too hostile place for humans. More than two million people already die prematurely every year from indoor and outdoor pollution.

It feels like all these problems are linked to our need to run away from our unnatural lives, where we don’t get to express ourselves or use many of the skills we have, often not wanting to take responsibility for our own lives. Taking responsibility for our own lives is more than just survival, but about finding fulfillment, rather than escaping or being distracted by over-eating, drinking, shopping or playing computer games.

We humans don’t have all the answers and I believe that getting back in touch with the earth and listening to nature is what we need. A plant tells us it needs watering as it starts to wilt, so we water it. If we don’t the plant dies. The same goes for the health of our planet. The signs are all around us. Six in ten of the worlds leading rivers have been either dammed or diverted. One in ten of these rivers no longer reaches the sea for part of the year.

We can either watch this beautiful world shrivel and disappear or we can pull together, act now and breath life back into our home.

Whilst thumbing through the Times today I came across a full page advert that stopped me in my tracks. No doubt placed in part to coincide with the protests against a third runway being held at Heathrow. Tackling climate change is again and again referred to as the single most important issue to face mankind. . . . . oh, except for re-floating the credit fueled growth economy (or was that vested interests queueing for government handouts and and an easy ride for otherwise nonsensical developments?). . . . at least that is according to the Future Heathrow campaign, as seen in the Times. A campaign that directly contradicts recent editorial in the very same broadsheet. This well financed group purports to represent a host of trade unions, the CBI, the British chambers of Commerce and London First, amongst others. They are running a high profile advertising campaign extolling the virtues of aviation for jobs and growth. Well in these difficult and stressful times woe betide anyone who thinks past short term, panic decisions, to ape business as usual activities. As they see it a third runway at Heathrow is essential to maintain London’s competitiveness in a growing avaition sector. Whilst even Future Heathrow freely acknowledge that emissions will outstrip any efficiency gains, there is no further explanation as to how the UK could arrive at a meaningful reductions target without reducing air traffic.

Even under the conservative 80% reductions target, the bare minimum required to avoid runaway and catastrophic climate change, industry and government figures mean that the predicted growth in aviation would account for well over 50% of the total CO2 emissions for the whole of the UK economy! As we have discussed before on LowFlyZone, this is patent nonsense. Add to this the mounting scientific evidence that the already changing natural world is less able to absorb CO2 emissions than historically was the case and the folly of such short sighted development is clear.

If, alternatively, the UK commits to developing genuine, low or zero carbon modes of transport, communications, then we may just start to build a truly sustainable economy. Not only that but the evidence that tackling these issues could improve the well being of the majority of people is, I believe, compelling.

Time for government,  unions and business leaders to get their collective heads out of the credit crunch sand and think about the longer term future, or this recession we are starting to feel will seem like a walk in the park.

I travel lots in fact, just not by plane. I do miss my friends and family in Oz but soon I’ll try and find the time to hitch a ride on a cargo ship where my extra passage is almost irrelevant. But even those journeys will get less frequent in the bigger world of smaller economies based on ecological realities. Maybe the idea of true adventure will return to our lives as packaged flying and high speed global culture sinks on the storms of the post boom, too much food, too much stuff, post oil age. I think maybe I should teach my daughter to sail boats too.

If you have other short films or stories you think should be up here or just want to say what you think abou this film we’d love to know. . . .

I just read two competing versions of how we will most likely fail to save the human race by two stalwarts of the environment movement.

First, George Monbiot, arguing we must, despite the risks  and likely failure, attempt a massive building program for renewable energy and electrified transport etc. The population at large will never swallow a huge cultural shift to another way of living and anyway this would lead to catastrophic economic and societal collapse vs. Second, Sharon Astyk’s plea for everyone to; a) just stop living high consumption lives and start subsistance agriculture in your back garden because we will have to anyway and b) a massive build program would mean huge emissions in the short term tipping the climate into irreversible change. Both George’s and Sharon’s plans seem improbable but maybe the reality is some of both?

Sharon is surely right about what it is possible to ask of people in these rapidly changing times. George has the problem of being dead right, but ignored for so long that to stay sane he lives in a bubble, so even when a crowd gathers around in agreement he cant see or hear them!

So, Sharon, meet George! Can we not combine George’s and Sharon’s respective approaches to generate the greatest odds of success? Besides, they look uncannily alike (maybe they are one and the same person? Hmmm. . .  ). As I see it, in a huge depression we will see many out of work and factories closing. . . . no more Airbus A380s or arguments over building more airport runways, big Pharma companies will falter and decline, energy intensive farming grinding to a halt etc. Conscripting the best and most able engineers, scientists, farmers etc. into a semi voluntary green army (they get free cabbage, turnips and potatoes in the UK!), focused on the least carbon intensive build out of things such as a distributed energy network and mass transit systems, surely are achievable goals? Re-skilling every parks authority to train people in domestic food production and carbon sequestration techniques such as pyrolytic bio-char production . . . These possibilities only seem remote from our recent historic perspective of affluent consumer culture. But if most of us have F*** all else to do, then lets make a plan. I will start tonight by trying to organise a Transition group right here in my neighbourhood, in my home town of Bristol.

Better get busy . . . .

p.s. I suspect Sharon is right about major builds such as the Severn barrage planned for near my home. In these times would it ever get finished?

It’s true, you’re unlikely to be able to substitute a plane flight with a bike journey. But as CO2-free travel goes, it’s hard to beat.

So why aren’t more of us riding to work?

It’s healthy, green, cheap. No need to worry about traffic jams, pollution levels or car parking hassles. Basically, if work is within a few miles of home, it’s eminently do-able for most of us.

But it’s not always that simple. In my last job I lived just four miles from my office, and had enthusiastic plans to ride in every day - but it never happened. The organisation where I worked had made itself as cycle-friendly as possible, but the truth is I was put off by the idea of doing it alone. The car journey was short, and the idea of riding for an hour a day – often in bad weather and after dark – was daunting.

I’m not a very experienced cyclist. I was concerned. How safe is a woman riding on her own after dark? What was the best route? What did I need to know about cycling in rush-hour traffic? And how would I avoid the boredom that I feared?

As it turns out, there is a solution if you find yourself in a similar situation: find yourself a bike buddy. Someone to share your commute with – for safety and for some friendly company. There is a free website – www.bikebudi.com – where you can register your cycle journey and then search for others riding the same way.

The idea of the site is not just to help current cyclists to find bike buddies. It also encourages individuals who may be concerned about riding to give it a go by putting them in touch with more experienced cyclists who know about riding safely, the best routes, bike security, taking a bike on public transport, suitable clothing and so on.

The site also calculates the carbon dioxide emissions you’ll be saving compared to making that journey solo in a car: a substantial addition to the CO2 you cut out with a Low Fly Zone pledge. So not only will biking bring a rosy glow to your cheeks, but you’ll also experience a glow of satisfaction at seeing how much further it is helping you to reduce your annual carbon footprint.

Dan tells us he gave up summer holidaying abroad by discovering some of Britain’s most idyllic ‘Wild Swimming’ spots back home. His guidebook documents 150 of our most beautiful river, lake and waterfall swimming holes. Loads of amazing photos in it too. Brilliant job!

On a hot summer day, what could be more refreshing than slipping into the cool, clear waters of a secret lake? And what could be more exciting than plunging into a hidden waterfall? Britain’s freshwater rivers, lakes and waterfalls are cleaner, safer and more accessible than at any time in living memory and the health benefits of a natural dip are also now well known.

A childhood spent playing on the riverbanks of the river Wye inspired me to document the traditional local places where our great-grandparents used to swim in the summer holidays. The result is a new photo-guide book Wild Swimming: 150 hidden dips in the rivers, lakes and waterfalls of Britain produced by the publishers of best-selling Cool Camping series. There are sections on skinny dipping, waterfalls, wild swimming with children, canoe camping, raft making and riverside wildlife too. These are places where children see their first kingfisher or find their first otter track. Here we learn to play Pooh sticks and build dams before falling asleep in the grass after a hard day’s adventure. With worries about climate change, obesity and urban youth crime, we need, more than ever, new and exciting ways for our children to engage with the natural world and to explore it in safe and responsible ways. We’re keen to hear about your favourite places so get in touch via the interactive map, guidance and articles at wildswimming.co.uk.

Top highlights from Daniel’s book

South West

King Arthur’s knights were baptised in this mystical circular waterfall before beginning their quest for the Holy Grail
Camp in the tipi village by this swimming lake set in a magical reclaimed quarry
Close to the birthplace of Charles Kingsley, these remote river pools on the Dart are surrounded by steep lush forest and inspired the tale of The Waterbabies

Swim with Tarka the Otter in the rivers that inspired Henry Williamson’s famous novel
Picnic by the river and exchange favourite wild-swimming locations at Britain’s longest established river swimming club
Swim and play at one of the longest river weirs in the country

South

White shingle beach and dancing water buttercups line the crystal-clear chalk streams that drain Hampshire’s Watership Down
These lost river meanders are set in the spectacular Cuckmere Haven
A popular inland beach, set in ancient Surrey heathland, built by the Bishop of Winchester in the sixteenth century
One of Britain’s oldest and most famous bathing ponds, these pools were constructed 400 years ago to provide London with drinking water through hollowed-out elm tree pipes
In the centre of Oxford, not far from the station, the riverside at Port Meadow inspired Lewis Carroll in the opening of Alice in Wonderland
Beautiful stretches of the River Thames that provided the setting for Three Men in a Boat and Wind in the Willows

Central and East

Paddle with dinosaurs at Stonesfield, the location of the first ever found Jurassic fossil
A giant amphitheatre filled with famously pure Malvern spring water. Admire tectonic faults from over 500 million years ago
Swim down the River Wye in Herefordshire, one of England’s best-loved swimming and canoeing rivers

Join the famous coracle regatta at the river-swimming village of Leintwardine
The famous Grantchester Meadows were a popular river bathing location of Lord Byron, Rupert Brooke, Virginia Woolf and members of the Bloomsbury Group
Mountain-top pools imbued with legends of mermaids and monsters

Wales

Hay-on-Wye, home of literary festivals and second-hand bookshops, is also the site of the famous riverside ‘Warren’ – a stretch of Wye-side shingle and shallows popular with families
The Waterfalls Woods are the most spectacular series of waterfalls in Wales, with aqua forest lidos fit for the gods
This high tarn is haunted by King Arthur’s Lady of the Lake
Waterfalls plunge through a valley rich in Welsh gold. There are several ruined mines and you can still find gold if you pan the pools
Coloured azure blue by faint traces of copper, these fantastic old slate quarries are like Mediterranean lagoons
Tarn-swimming is the ultimate landscape immersion and wilderness trip. These are three of the best
Follow in the footsteps of Mallory, Hillary and some of our most famous Everest mountaineers and complete the Snowdon swim tour

Lakes and Dales

Magnificent Wastwater: England’s deepest, most dramatic and most beautiful lake. It also has an underwater gnome garden
Eskdale: a magical series of pools leading up to Scafell Pike. There’s nowhere better to be on a hot day in the Lakes

William Wordsworth’s mountain pools with view across Rydal Water
Swim across to Wildcat Island of Swallows and Amazons fame
Hell Gill is thought to be a collapsed cave, now a semi-underground stream that feels like the inside of a whale. Descend if you dare!
A gentle cataract great for ‘tubing’ - rafting the rapids on rubber rings.
Set next to the ruins of Bolton Priory, this stretch of river becomes Costa-del- Bolton on hot summer days
The wooded Gormire Lake, set beneath the spectacular Sutton Bank, was a favourite location for James Herriot

Scotland and North

Swim with the Romans along Hadrian’s Wall and visit their temple to the water nymphs
The bottomless plunge pool of Linhope Spout in the grand Cheviot Hills
Swim across the border from England to Scotland at Union Bridge, one of the oldest suspension bridges in the world
The Faeries and Faerie Pools of Skye, the clearest water in Britain
Bathe with the Loch Ness Monster by the ruins of Urquhart Castle
Swim across to a ruined castle island on Loch an Eilein
Find Rob Roy’s secret cave on the bonnie banks of Loch Lomond
The closest thing to Highland pools without going north of Stirling. Great rock slide and there’s an excellent pub nearby too
Swim in Rob Roy’s giant bathtub at the Falls of Falloch

How to be wild and safe

- Wear footwear if you can
- Never swim alone and keep a constant watch on weak swimmers
- Always make sure you know how you will get out before you get in
- Avoid contact with blue-green algae, a powdery scum found on some lake edges in summer
- Never swim in canals, urban rivers, stagnant lakes or reedy shallows, and keep cuts and wounds covered with waterproof plasters

We’d love to hear about natural places you love near to where you live and the times you have had. . . .