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Jeff Rubins on economic growth, localisation and energy?
By Ciaran Mundy | January 26, 2010
Does economic growth depend on cheap energy, specifically oil? Can we decouple growth from increased energy use?
Can we shift to a lower energy, more energy efficient economy? Will we simply move from flying to taking high speed rail and electric cars? What will society look like and what will happen to the global economy?
Economist and author of “Why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller: Oil and the end of globalization” Jeff Rubin predicts flying will be as it was in the early 1970s.
I am putting aside flaws in the assumption that we have to grow the economy to keep financing the global economy. A big ask maybe, but in reality that’s where politics and economics is and will be for a while I feel despite the efforts of many at a saner approach.
The Green New Deal in the UK, the USA and many other nations is heralded as the way to simultaneously make all the necessary substitutions, boosting economic activity, providing jobs and a green version of the life we all know. Nothing too scary about that.
But is it true? Can we subsitute are way out of the energy hole we are falling into. This is for me the big unanswered question at the heart of current economic and political thinking. I have enjoyed recent talks by economist and author Jeff Rubin asking these questions and suggesting some of the answers. Relocalisation is central to his thesis. . .
Here is a fuller exploration on this theme, including his prediction that flying will go back to the level seen in the 1970s. Rubin argues that without enforced trade tariffs for high emitting goods and services there is little chance of the developing world moving to a low emissions development model. He argues that the sooner these tariffs are in place the better. China and other economies will soon be far less dependent on consumption in the West for there own economic growth, as their domestic and regional demand are growing fast. A strong argument for rapid transfer to low and zero emissions regional economies, even if there is short term pain for old industries and our dependence on imports.
Rubin references the EU as a demonstration of the future for the US in terms of transport. But, if we are to have a significant chance of avoiding runaway climate change, this will not be nearly enough.
In conclusion Rubins predicts by 2010 oil over $200 pb. Economic growth is central still but based on re-regionalised economies. Peak oil means that peak globalisation happened in 2007. The world is about to get localised!
Topics: Alternatives to Air Travel, Aviation Industry, Business Travel, CO2 emissions, Topical, Video |