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My dad is a great optimist. . . .
By Ciaran Mundy | October 30, 2009
My dad is a wonderful and optimistic man, he believes in the ingenuity of man to technofix our greatest challenges such as climate change and energy scarcity. He often sends me articles like this in the Vacouver Sun.
A $1.3-billion technological upgrade to Canada’s air-traffic-control system is taking off in another way: It will bring cleaner skies.
I think he’s trying to cheer me up! I know he thinks I worry too much. So in the spirit of optimism I checked out the article talking about the thousands of tonnes CO2 that would be saved by the latest satellite GPS technology allowing more planes to cross Canada etc. whilst also saving on fuel costs and emissions. . .
My response to my dad:
interesting article. . . . . I would say, it’s only better to be more efficient IF it comes with lowering overall TOTAL emissions.
So far all the efficiencey savings (engine technology, wing design, traffic control, improved lighter materials etc.) in the aviation industry has, in reality, led to two things happening:
1. Delayed meaningful policy responses to control of the TOTAL emissions by this sector, the fastest growing sector in the world. Imagine the impact of the Chinese, Indians, Malaysians flying as much as Europeans Australians etc. Why would they restrict themselves if we refuse to?
2. Through a well studied economic feedback called ‘Khazzoom-Brookes postulate’, the extra profits captured by the aviation industry through efficiency gains allow it to expand it’s business. The result is that TOTAL emissions end up HIGHER.
The 2% figure used here for emissions is very out of date. They are more like 4-9% of the total CO2e warming. Currently estimates are for another doubling in emissions by 2030 (by 2007 they were double the 1990 level) this includes such efficiency savings as detailed in the article. Globally the per capita level of emissions for all human activities needs be 1 or 2 tonnes (that’s 1 return flight to Delhi or Vancouver).
So while I accept that technological advancement can be part of a solution it can also make the problem worse in TOTAL. If we look at what scientists are saying actual reductions in the TOTAL emissions must begin straight away. . .
Professor Schellnhuber recently briefed U.S. officials from the Barack Obama administration, He had told them that the U.S. must reduce its emissions from its current 20 tonnes of carbon per person average to zero tonnes per person by 2020 to have an even chance of stabilising the climate around two degrees C. . . . China’s emissions must peak by 2020 and then go to zero by 2035 based on the current science.
In the EU the typical emissions are around 11 tonnes per head right now.
The emissions from aviation industry must be subject to a stringent cap on total emissions, nothing less. Even though that means the aviation industry’s future is likely one of contraction.
Topics: Aviation Industry, CO2 emissions, Your Experiences |
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